Analysis

Strategic analysis carried out by national and international experts in security and defense.

Russian Warships, Venezuelan Elections, and a Fabricated Crisis with Guyana in the Caribbean?

Por: R. Evan Ellis (05/09/2024). En el artículo “¿Buques de guerra rusos, elecciones venezolanas y una crisis fabricada con Guyana en el Caribe?”, escrito antes de las elecciones del 28 de julio de 2024 en Venezuela, R. Evan Ellis explora la presencia militar de Rusia en el Caribe y sus implicaciones para la geopolítica regional, en particular en lo que respecta a las elecciones venezolanas y la disputa territorial entre Venezuela y Guyana.

Challenges of Military Intelligence in the Fight Against Terrorism in the Apurimac, Ene and Mantaro River Valleys (VRAEM)

By: Luis Gustavo Castro González y Julio Mario Zuñiga Concha (29/08/2024). The research examines the challenges faced by military intelligence in combating the terrorist organization operating in the Apurimac, Ene and Mantaro river valleys (VRAEM). First, it describes the evolution of this organization over the last 30 years. Subsequently, a detailed evaluation of the transformation and development of military intelligence in this region is carried out. Furthermore, an exhaustive diagnosis and identification of key variables is carried out by means of the MICMAC Method (Multiplied Cross Impacts Matrix for Classification).

Artificial Intelligence and Disinformation: Role in 21st Century Conflicts

By: Adolfo Arreola (15/08/2024). Recent conflicts around the world demonstrate that technology is fundamental for the development of war campaigns. The use of state-of-the-art technology is not limited exclusively to traditional International Humanitarian Law (IHL) actors, but is also employed by non-state actors, who challenge the effectiveness of the international legal framework, open the way for illegitimate and illegal actions, and expand the gray zone between peace and war.

The Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization as a Tool for Combating Transnational Organized Crime from an Environmental Perspective

By: Fábio Albergaria de Queiroz (08/08/2024). This article analyzes transnational illicit activities in the Amazon, a space where diverse criminal networks thrive. As a research proposal, it is verified, through descriptive (how) and causal (why) inferences, to what extent the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) can become an effective tool to combat them, replacing the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), which before the suspension of its activities was the appropriate forum for this purpose.

Social Network Security: Navigating with Cyber Awareness and Solidarity

By: Julio Hernán Santa Cruz Zavaleta (01/08/2024). Social networks, in their constant search for public attention, have generated an excessive dependence on technology, turning many individuals into Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) automatons. This addiction to digital interaction has resulted in a diminished capacity for critical reflection and decision-making based on real knowledge. It is essential to question the impact of Social Networks on people’s ability to think independently and critically, and to seek a balance between technology and the development of cognitive and analytical skills.

Transnational Consequences of the Colombia – FARC Peace Process

By: Orlando Quiñones Marriaga (11/07/2024). The Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) signed a peace agreement in 2016, triggering collateral effects that impacted part of the continent. Specifically, groups that did not participate in the negotiation continued with criminal actions. This situation especially affected neighboring countries and led to a transfer of crime from one territory to another, even establishing alliances with criminal gangs from bordering states.

Alto Huallaga: A Success Story

By: José Manuel Qwistgaard Suárez (04/07/2024). This article analyzes the success of government intervention in the fight against drugs in the province of Tocache, located in the department of San Martín, during the period from 2003 to 2011, as well as in the so-called Alto Huallaga zone, which includes the Province of Tocache in San Martín, the Province of Leoncio Prado in Huánuco, the Province of Padre Abad in Ucayali and the districts of Cholón and Monzón in Huánuco.

ISIS-K: A Reboot of Jihadist Terrorism?

By: Mariano López de Miguel (27/0672024). Shocking images recorded on Friday, March 22, 2024 at the Crocus City Hall concert palace near Moscow revealed the presence of jihadist terrorism in Russia, evoking the Chechen wars of the late 20th century and the Kremlin’s continued preoccupation with the region. Chechnya’s history has been shaped by the struggle against religious fundamentalism, with Dudayev and Basayev being prominent protagonists.

Insecurity is What States Make of It: U.S. Securitization of China

By: Clemente Rodríguez (13/06/2023). The purpose of this article is to investigate and analyze the process of securitization from the United States (US) to China and the dangers it poses to regional security in the Asia Pacific. It is argued that securitization, understood as a process in which a danger is identified and designated as an existential threat to an object of reference that justifies the adoption of extreme measures to protect it, is driving the bilateral relationship between Washington and Beijing towards a direct confrontation.

Argentina: Security Challenges and the Government Response

By: Evan Ellis (06/06/2024). In addition to Argentina’s profound economic crisis, the nation faces serious security challenges. These include use of the country as a drug transit zone, including cocaine from Bolivia and Peru bound for Europe and marijuana from Paraguay. Such criminal activities have caused violent struggles between groups for transport routes in logistics hubs such as Rosario. The country is also challenged by the secondary effects of such drug trafficking, including addition to the cocaine byproduct “paco,” the new synthetic drug “Tussi,” and an increasing fentanyl consumption problem, and criminal insecurity accelerated by rising rates of poverty and unemployment.