Analysis

Strategic analysis carried out by national and international experts in security and defense.

Future battlefield that maybe already be present

By: Carlos Frías Sánchez (21/07/2021).

Technical progress in sensors, guided weaponry, artificial intelligence and UAVs will have a major impact on future combat. In the same sense, the reduction in size of the Armies and the increasing difficulties to replace losses will imply also major changes in their way to operate. The aggregation of both phenomena brings to the fore the old Soviet concept of the “reconnaissance-strike systems” (RUK) which foresaw a fundamental change in the way the Armies’ would fight, due to the technologic advance in the aforementioned areas. As the technology is constantly advancing precisely in these fields, most probably, future combat will present many of the features described by the Soviet theorists for their RUK in the past 80s. The development of the recent fight in Libya and, especially, in Nagorno-Karabakh seem to lead us to that outcome.

Is it time to establish a security architecture in the Middle East?

By: Felipe Sánchez Tapia (01/07/2021).

For decades, the development of collective defense, collective security, and more recently, cooperative security structures in one of the most unstable regions of the globe, has been unsuccessful. The differences between the regional powers’ respective geopolitical visions and the global powers’ conflicting interests, have operated as an obstacle that is, thus far, insurmountable. Nevertheless, despite the regional polarization and great unrest, there currently exist opportunities that could be seized by global powers, particularly by the United States, in order to advance their global interests.

Crisis in Ukraine and the rise of Russia in the post-Soviet era: a geopolitical look at Moscow

By: Josías Valle (24/06/2021).

This article analyzes the crisis in Ukraine, after the events of 2013 and 2014, which generated changes in Ukrainian politics, particularly due to the projection of Russia in an area that par excellence awakens the rebirth of Moscow. Starting from this scenario, it is shown how the current conflict in Ukraine, generated by a revival of Russia in the post-Soviet era, translates as the ultimate goal of the Kremlin to contain any initiative that Kiev intends to carry out with the European Union and with the United States, Moscow’s main rivals.

Thucydides’ Exhortation

By: Andrés González Martín (16/06/2021).

Contemporary military, strategic and geopolitical thinking written in Spanish is poor but Ibero-American history and experience is a real gold mine. It is especially a gold mine when it comes to thinking, rethinking, and writing about irregular warfare and the grey zone. The debt is not to the forgotten past but to the future. A shared historical vision, a common strategic and geopolitical thinking, would provide Ibero-America a vector of integration that in the long term would have important returns. We need an Ibero-American school of strategic and geopolitical thought and the study of military history to win the right to be heard in areas where we have no voice, both at home and abroad.

Twenty-five centuries ago, Thucydides, in his Peloponnesian War, warned us that “a nation that draws too broad a difference between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking being done by cowards and its fighting done by fools”.

New threats to National Security: A pending solution

By: Victor Bautista Valle (03/06/2021).

Organized crime, common crime, illicit arms trafficking, human trafficking, illegal mining, health emergencies, among others, not only disturb the well-being of citizens but also affect the development of a country. In Peru, in addition to these threats, there are others that persist over time, such as terrorism and drug trafficking. In this article, statistical data of some of the threats that affect the security of the Peruvian State is analyzed in order to better understand their dimension and scope, but -mainly- with the purpose that the top decision-makers of the State adopt the necessary actions to deal with them effectively.

Approaches and Challenges of Peru’s National Defense and Security Policy

By: Paul Vera Delzo (26/05/2021).

In 2017, the National Security and Defense Council (COSEDENA) approved the National Security and Defense Policy (PSDN) in order to strengthen the operation of the National Defense System (SIDENA). This policy, still in force, contains three objectives and twenty-nine guidelines, which should guide the activities of all the actors involved in National Security and Defense.

Intervention of the Peruvian State in La Pampa: A pendant integral effort

By: Manolo Eduardo Villagra (18/05/2021).

In Peru, the increase in agricultural activities and illegal mining has increased deforestation in the Amazon region; Among the areas with the greatest impact, “La Pampa” stands out, located in the Madre de Dios Region. This serious situation made the Peruvian State start, in 2019, the implementation of the “Comprehensive Plan Against Illegal Mining in Madre de Dios (La Pampa)”, with the aim of stopping the illegal activities that had been developing and recovering the principle of authority through the execution of multisectoral actions.

The Chancellery and the Hybrid War: The Lavrov Case in the Russian Conflicts of the 21st Century

By: Alberto Castro Villa (05/05/2021).

This article shows and analyzes the important work of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, as a core element of the strategy developed by the Kremlin in its conflicts in the 21st century. In this sense, the importance of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for the direction and execution of this strategy, whose theoretical basis has been called the “Gerasimov Doctrine”, is highlighted. Likewise, the fundamental concepts, sources and operating procedures of this doctrine are cited, which the West – originally – called Hybrid War. For this, two of the conflicts in which Russia has participated in the course of the 21st century are presented, such as the cyberwar between Russia and Estonia, in 2007, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in 2014.

Will there be a “long telegram” from China?

By: José Pardo de Santayana (28/04/2021).

Kennan’s famous “long telegram”, which inspired the containment response to the Soviet Union during the Cold War, is a lesson in how to strategize in the face of geopolitical challenges of great magnitude and complexity. When rereading it, the clairvoyance displayed by the young American diplomat is still amazing.

Post-pandemic geopolitics

By: Gonzalo Rubio Piñeiro (22/04/2021).

The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet quantifiable; however, the main variables that currently define the evolution of the strategic environment are easily identifiable. From these, you can establish global forward-looking scenarios and analyze their specific impact in Latin America.