This article was initially published in the Revista Seguridad y Poder Terrestre
Vol. 3 No. 2 (2024): April to June

---

Summary

The Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) signed a peace agreement in 2016, triggering collateral effects that impacted part of the continent. Specifically, groups that did not participate in the negotiation continued with criminal actions. This situation especially affected neighboring countries and led to a transfer of crime from one territory to another, even establishing alliances with criminal gangs from bordering states. As a result, criminality that was once local became transnational, as the National Liberation Army (ELN), FARC groups and the Gulf Clan migrated to neighboring countries, especially Ecuador. The consequences of this criminal relocation have been reflected in violence that has disrupted governance in the neighboring country.

Key words: Dissidence, Negotiation, Symbiosis, Strategy, Transnational Criminality.

Introduction

This article presents an analysis of research and studies carried out from the last decade to the present. Transnational crime, rooted in drug trafficking, has expanded throughout South America, integrating criminal gangs, terrorist acts and drug cartels. A bibliographic review was carried out on the origins of this criminality in Ecuador and its link with the peace treaties in Colombia, as well as their repercussions. For this purpose, a descriptive-qualitative methodology was used, which entails an exhaustive analysis of the literature related to the topic in question, with the purpose of obtaining well-founded conclusions.

Transnational crime materialized in the 21st century with the alliances between jihadist terrorist groups that, after 9/11, pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda. Prior to 2001, the world witnessed no major alliances other than those made possible by the drug cartels operating in various countries in the region. Undoubtedly, this association between cartels, which emerged in the twentieth century, was overcome at the time, as the fight against drugs led to the extinction of some and the reduction of the power and criminal influence of others. Thus, the disappearance of cartels such as the Medellin and Cali cartels in Colombia, as well as the Arellano Felix clan in Mexico, was observed. However, these were replaced by, among others, Organized Armed Groups.

“The peace agreement with one of the most significant guerrillas in Colombian history sought to attack several problems that originated the internal armed conflict – among them, drug trafficking”.^[1] Although initially the Colombian guerrillas relied on contributions from the USSR and on crimes such as “boleteo” or kidnapping, drug trafficking, with the disappearance of the big capos, displaced any other criminal activity and occupied all the space of the financial management of these organizations. This gave them considerable power, in contrast to the precariousness of the 80s and 90s of the last century. This transition to drug trafficking turned the guerrillas into powerful war machines that represented a budget expenditure equivalent to 2.5% of GDP.

In the 20th century, the guerrillas were transformed into terrorist groups and later into dissidents, which has been evidenced in the southern cone of the continent. “What was known as “peasant struggle” overflowed and neither then nor later was there any government that managed to stop the violence turned into terrorism”.^[2] This caused the South of the continent to be affected since the beginning of the 21st century, especially after the peace agreement in which not all guerrilla groups participated, as mentioned above.

The symbiosis between drug trafficking and terrorism in Colombia spread throughout the region. In countries where it existed, such as Mexico and part of Central America, it was strengthened. Until recently, it was not a rule in the Southern Cone, but today it is observed how the ease of Colombia’s porous borders was fundamental for the expansion of this type of criminality in Ecuador. It is worth mentioning that this criminal manifestation brings with it a background of structural violence. “Indeed, the violence of the systems (hunger, misery, illiteracy, lack of culture, dependence, gender inequalities, etc.), its causes, mechanisms and springs are often veiled by other circumstances that also make them more difficult to detect”.^[3]

The border issue between Colombia and Ecuador has historically been peaceful. However, the new criminal phenomena have raised violence (structural, direct, indirect, hybrid) to levels not seen in previous decades. This is due to the fact that Ecuador had not suffered directly from drug trafficking and its tentacles as it is currently experiencing. The same is happening on borders such as the Darien between Colombia and Panama. “This is contextualized in a region with extensive areas of porous borders, an issue that has served as an incentive to organized crime, especially those linked to drug trafficking, arms trafficking and human trafficking and illegal immigrant smuggling, which is also at the basis of certain bilateral tensions”.^[4]

The criminal groups’ strategy involved moving illegally across borders and trafficking drugs, people, weapons and other goods. Previously, these crimes were mainly operated by transnational crime in the Triple Frontier (Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay). However, it is evident that the “comfort zone” of South American criminal groups has led them to expand into larger areas. They have made inroads in Argentina, specifically in the city of Rosario, which is now considered a haven for drug trafficking, and have crossed Ecuador’s borders.

Security Crisis

In the vast specialized literature on this subject, the concept of security crisis has been extensively discussed. Empirical experience supports the assertion that this is a situation or event that threatens the stability, integrity and security of an individual, a community, an organization or a country, and that requires a prompt and effective response to mitigate its consequences and protect those affected. In this sense, “the increase in the current levels of violence and insecurity in Ecuador has provoked the classic response of many Latin American governments: the deployment of the Army. However, repeating measures that have proven inefficient will not solve the current security crisis”.^[5]

The above statement is logical, as the emergency situation in Ecuador cannot be countered with the army alone. Although President Noboa, when the incidents arose in early January of this year, invoked the Internal Armed Conflict to gain the legal capacity to confront the criminal groups that triggered the crisis, he must obtain the approval of the Ecuadorian Congress to enact a series of laws empowering him to act against these gangs without the State itself infringing on human rights.

Insecurity in Ecuador can vary by region and circumstance. Some of the most recurrent concerns are street crime, robberies, assaults and crime associated with drug trafficking. Generally, larger cities such as Quito and Guayaquil have higher levels of crime than rural areas. The Ecuadorian government has implemented various measures to combat crime, including increasing police presence and implementing crime prevention programs. One of the focal points of structural violence in Ecuador is the prisons, where some of the determining factors for the explosion or aggravation of the emergency situation in the country come together.

Table 1. Factors of violence in prisons

Overcrowding	Violence and internal conflicts	Gang control	Corruption
Ecuador’s prisons are often overcrowded, leading to precarious living conditions and a lack of resources to meet inmates’ basic needs.	Overcrowding, lack of resources and the presence of criminal gangs within the prisons have led to internal conflicts and violent confrontations between inmates.	Criminal gangs have imposed significant control within certain prisons, which has generated violence, as well as drug and arms trafficking in prisons.	Corruption within the Ecuadorian prison system has exacerbated pre-existing problems and hindered efforts to improve prison conditions and ensure the safety of inmates and staff.

Source: Own elaboration

Persistent problems in Ecuador’s prisons over the years have triggered a series of crises, including riots, escapes and deadly confrontations between inmates. The Ecuadorian government has implemented measures such as the construction of new prison facilities, rehabilitation programs and the fight against corruption in the system. Nevertheless, the situation remains a major challenge for the country. Recently, President Noboa, in response to the security crisis of January 9 of this year, proposed the possible construction of mega-prisons. However, he did not provide specific details on their location or design. He also considered the repatriation of foreign inmates to their countries of origin, in the hope of reducing criminality within the prisons.

Ecuador’s involvement in transnational organized crime is relatively new. While the country has had a progressive participation in regional drug trafficking dynamics, Ecuador had not been characterized as a violent country due to distinctive power disputes or peaks of criminal violence between local organizations for access to routes or other serious crimes associated with transnational crime. However, since 2019 Ecuador has shown a growing trend of violence due to clashes between various criminal organizations seeking economic positioning and legitimacy in the various serious crimes occurring in the country.^[6]

The report by the Ecuadorian Observatory of Organized Crime highlights that violence in Ecuador, particularly in relation to criminal organizations, is a recent phenomenon. This increase is attributed in part to the influence of criminality from neighboring countries such as Colombia and Venezuela. In the Colombian case, the presence of residual organized armed groups that did not participate in the 2016 peace agreement is mentioned. While in Venezuela, political destabilization has generated an exodus of businessmen, middle class and criminals to neighboring nations.

Considering other factors that have contributed to the rise in crime, there are some that are not necessarily the result of systemic negligence or the previously mentioned factors. In addition, “the decentralization of the criminal core would coincide with the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, which also generated an additional problem in Ecuador’s criminal environment”.^[7] This factor led to the extraterritoriality of crime, which caused criminal gangs to disperse throughout the country. We are not only talking about Quito, but also about other major cities such as Guayaquil or Esmeraldas, where transnational crime is present.

Migration Factor

Migration and criminality are complex issues that can be interrelated in various ways, so it is crucial to address them accurately and contextualize them properly. In Ecuador, the migratory flow has increased in recent years, especially with the arrival of Venezuelan migrants who have escaped the crisis in their country. This situation has posed challenges in many areas, including security and crime. Several studies have identified possible links between migration and crime in Ecuador.

Table 2. Causes associated with crime

Increased labor competition	Human trafficking	Growth of the informal economy
The arrival of migrants can lead to competition for jobs, especially in informal sectors. This situation could lead to social tensions and potentially increase involvement in criminal activities among marginalized sectors.	Increased migration can also encourage human smuggling, especially when migrants are desperate to find a means to enter or stay in the country irregularly.	Migrants may participate in the informal economy as a survival strategy, which may involve illegal or semi-legal activities that potentially increase crime rates.

Source: Own elaboration

Many migrants seek to improve their living conditions and contribute positively to Ecuadorian society. The analysis of the relationship between migration and crime should be comprehensive and include policies that promote the social and labor integration of migrants, as well as measures to combat crime in general, regardless of the origin of those involved. Similarly, it is crucial to address the underlying causes of migration and work on regional cooperation to effectively manage migration flows and ensure the safety of all citizens, both migrants and locals.

Drug Trafficking Factor

Drug trafficking is intrinsically linked to criminality, both inside and outside Ecuadorian territory. Those involved in this scourge use coercion, the use of weapons and intimidation to protect their smuggling routes, coca plantations and laboratories. As a result, it has triggered an increase in homicides, kidnappings and other violent crimes in the country. In addition, those involved in this illicit business often bribe officials to obtain protection and access to resources. As a result, this corrupt practice has weakened Ecuador’s democratic institutions and hindered the fight against drug trafficking.

It should be noted that its impact on Ecuador’s security was considerable, as it experienced a rise in violence, corruption and instability in recent years. This scenario has undermined the economic and social progress of the South American country and compromised the security of its inhabitants. The government has implemented measures to combat the illegal drug trade; but the situation continues to present significant challenges, as these mafias possess great power and well-established transnational structures, making it difficult for authorities to combat them individually. “While Ecuador needs to coordinate efforts with other states to combat drug trafficking, it is important that the country defines a counter-narcotics strategy in line with its interests and values, without blindly accepting the strategies promoted by other states”. ^[8]

The border between Colombia and Ecuador extends for 500 kilometers, which positions them as two key actors in the fight against drug trafficking. This phenomenon affects both nations transnationally, highlighting the importance of cooperation between their respective governments to effectively address it. Colombia has collaborated with Ecuador in this fight for an extended period of time, strengthening this joint work in recent years as both countries intensified their efforts to combat drug trafficking.

Colombia’s experience in fighting this transnational crime makes it a crucial ally for Ecuador. The reciprocal partnership has been evident in a number of areas, including intelligence sharing, joint operations and technical assistance, which has generated positive results in the battle against drug trafficking.

In the area of technical assistance, Colombia offers support to Ecuador to strengthen its capabilities in the fight against drug trafficking. This partnership includes training for security forces, policy development and the implementation of preventive programs, which has generated positive results. In recent years, there has been an increase in drug seizures and the capture of traffickers. Despite this, the problem persists, and collaboration between nations must be maintained in order to combat it effectively.

Narco-Economy

In the context of drug trafficking, financing emerges as a crucial factor. This illegal activity generates an economy based on illegality, which implies the commission of crimes contemplated in Colombia’s criminal law 599 of 2000.

Criminal enterprises establish their strategies vis-à-vis other organizations through the composition of demand. To determine the price of illicit drugs, those involved in cocaine production perceive, interpret and respond to the needs of buyers. Determining the consumer market and its trends is fundamental to understanding the needs of consumers and the strategies undertaken.^[9]

When the market is active, criminal organizations tend to compete for the “market”. It is in this context, where wars between cartels are generated, and their residues are the gangs that today have the cities of Ecuador taken over by violence. “Drug trafficking is largely controlled by Mexican, Colombian and Albanian mafia groups and cartels that associate with local gangs”,^[10] establishing invisible borders in the retail distribution of drugs.

Due to the impact of drug trafficking organizations in Latin America and Eastern Europe, the need for a regional policy against drug trafficking is evident in Ecuador. At this juncture, collaboration between countries emerges as a fundamental strategy to combat this scourge in the region. However, the dynamics of drug trafficking have changed, involving new actors such as Ecuador, previously not considered a producer. Therefore, Ecuador’s anti-drug policy seeks to eradicate coca crops, the raw material for cocaine, as its main objective.

The Peace Accord in Colombia as a destabilizer of Ecuador

The peace agreement, signed between the Colombian government and the FARC in 2016, brought with it diverse implications for the region, including Ecuador. While this pact represented an important step in the resolution of the internal armed conflict in Colombia, it also brought with it certain consequences in neighboring countries such as Ecuador, such as a growing concern over insecurity and criminality. Some of the possible connections between the peace agreement in Colombia and crime in Ecuador could include:

1. Displacement of Armed Groups. After the signing of the peace agreement, it is possible that some armed groups and former FARC combatants have migrated to other areas, including Ecuador, in search of new economic opportunities or to continue illicit activities such as drug trafficking.
2. Increased drug trafficking. Ecuador is a significant transit country for drug trafficking, and the presence of armed groups in border areas with Colombia could fuel increased drug trafficking through Ecuadorian territory.
3. Influence on local crime. The prevalence of ex-combatants and armed groups could have an impact on local crime dynamics, including a possible influence on the formation of gangs and increased violence in certain areas.

It is important to consider that the relationship between the peace agreement in Colombia and criminality in Ecuador is complex and multifaceted. While it may have some implications for the dynamics of crime in Ecuador, it is also only one of several factors that can affect security and stability in the country. To effectively address the causes of crime in Ecuador and promote citizen security, a comprehensive approach is needed that encompasses security measures, crime prevention, institutional strengthening and regional cooperation. However, Ecuador has failed to establish effective mechanisms to reduce transnational criminal violence.

The situation has deteriorated very rapidly, mainly as a consequence of the realignment of drug mafias in Colombia. Following the 2016 peace agreement, FARC dissidents and other organized crime groups concentrated their activity in southwestern Colombia (especially in the departments of Nariño and Putumayo, which border Ecuador), using the port of Tumaco, just a few kilometers from the border, as the main exit point for drugs. Soon a significant part of the drug trafficking and the associated violence spilled over into the neighboring country: the routes then also sought the Ecuadorian port of Esmeraldas, and when the volume of drug shipments increased even more, the main exit point for cocaine became Guayaquil, whose large maritime trade facilitates illegal shipments to the United States and Europe. As it crosses Ecuador from north to south, drug transit has boosted corruption, gang confrontation – on the streets and in prisons – and homicides.^[11]

Prior to the signing of the peace agreement in Colombia, transnational criminality in the region was consolidated. However, with that agreement, the criminal structures that did not adhere to it found refuge in Ecuadorian territory to avoid confrontations with the Colombian army. The permeability of the border functions as a safe haven for Colombian criminal groups in the neighboring country.

The seven FOS actions so far in 2018 have impacted Ecuador’s security forces. This offensive, which has left Ecuadorian police and military injured and dead, includes harassment and attacks with homemade explosives and car bombs, and has occurred mainly in the province of Esmeraldas, in rural areas near the Mataje River. ^[12]

FARC dissidents exert significant influence in the border region between Ecuador and Colombia. These groups, composed of former combatants who rejected the peace agreement signed in 2016, engage in illicit activities such as drug trafficking, smuggling and extortion in remote and difficult to access areas. The presence of these FARC factions on the Ecuadorian border raises major security concerns for the country’s authorities, as well as for the local population.

It is important to highlight in this article that Ecuador has implemented measures to confront the existence of these FARC dissident groups in its territory. This includes cooperation with Colombia and other neighboring countries, as well as strengthening security capabilities in border areas. However, the influence of these dissidents remains a regional security concern and requires a comprehensive and coordinated response by governments and security agencies in the region.

Conclusions

The security crisis in Ecuador, intensified in the third decade of the 21st century, has its roots in transnational crime. Criminal groups of various kinds initially converged in small businesses and limited areas. However, the response capacity of the Ecuadorian state has been overwhelmed by the increase in transnational crime. This now encompasses not only minor and medium-sized crimes, but large criminal strategies that practically occupy the country. Cities such as Esmeraldas and Guayaquil, once peaceful areas, have been taken over by transnational crime related to drug trafficking and sales.

The migratory factor has further intrigued transnational crime in the Southern Cone country. The Venezuelan criminality that plagues the Americas, from the United States to Argentina, has spread its tentacles throughout various parts of the nation. This type of scourge has even been involved in crimes such as the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in 2023, where Colombian and Venezuelan citizens were involved.

The signing of the peace agreement in Colombia in 2016 and the refusal of several FARC guerrilla fronts to accept it unleashed violence never seen before in Ecuador. FARC dissidents in Ecuador created a geopolitics of crime that operates in the south of the continent through drug trafficking, with Ecuador as the backbone of that geopolitics. The country’s limited experience in combating drug trafficking allowed it to penetrate with full force. Working in coalition with Colombia, which has decades of experience combating this crime, will be fundamental for Ecuador to obtain positive results in this area.

The drug trafficking economy is undoubtedly the main cause of Ecuador’s rampant criminal violence. Regional cooperation will be key to tackling transnational crime. Efforts at the border should be synchronized so that the exchange of information leads to significant results against drug trafficking and related crimes. The review of the strategy and the evaluation of results will strengthen the capacity to anticipate future scenarios of armed conflict.

Endnotes:

1. Ibarra, P. A. (2021). Estrategias contra el narcotráfico en Colombia en el marco del acuerdo de paz. Análisis político, (92), 102-110. ↑
2. Rodríguez, M. T. (2016). Geografía del terrorismo en Colombia: Una visión retrospectiva. Revista de paz y conflictos, (17), 179-198. ↑
3. Jiménez, B. F. (2004). Violencia estructural. En Enciclopedia de paz y conflictos (pp. 523-530). Granada: Editorial Universidad de Granada. ↑
4. Riquelme, R. J.-S. (2019). El Crimen Organizado Transnacional (COT) en América del Sur: Respuestas regionales. Revista Estudios Internacionales, (57), 9-33. ↑
5. Maydeu-Olivares, S. (October 25, 2021). Estado de excepción en Ecuador: Crisis de seguridad interna y amenaza regional. Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. https://www.cidob.org/es/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/opinion_cidob/2021/estado_de_excepcion_en_ecuador_crisis_de_seguridad_interna_y_amenaza_regional ↑
6. Rivera, R. -O. (2022). Caracterización del crimen organizado. Fundación Panamericana para el Desarrollo. ↑
7. Ibid. ↑
8. Espinoza, F. de. (2016). Una amenaza silenciosa: el narcotráfico en Ecuador. Polemika. Ecuador. ↑
9. Rivera-Rhon, R., & Bravo-Grijalva, C. (2020). Crimen organizado y cadenas de valor: el ascenso estratégico del Ecuador en la economía del narcotráfico. URVIO, (28), 8-29. ↑
10. Global Initiative, O. (2023). Índice Global de Crimen Organizado. Organización Global Iniciativa. ↑
11. Blasco, E. J. (2023, 14 de abril). Ecuador se desliza hacia el agujero de la violencia y del narcotráfico. Universidad de Navarra. https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/ecuador-se-desliza-hacia-el-agujero-de-la-violencia-y-del-narcotrafico. ↑
12. Álvarez, V. E. (2018). Trayectorias y dinámicas territoriales de las disidencias de las FARC. Fundación Ideas para la Paz. ↑