This article was initially published in the Revista Seguridad y Poder Terrestre
Vol. 3 No. 3 (2024): July to September
https://doi.org/10.56221/spt.v3i3.55

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Gonzalo Javier Rubio Piñeiro^[1]

Abstract

The possible creation of a geopolitical alliance/coalition made up of the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran is interpreted by analysts and politicians as a strategic maneuver aimed at countering the global domination of the West and, in particular, challenging the United States hegemony. Commonly known as the Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis, this coalition symbolizes the convergence of interests between these countries to strengthen economic, political and military collaboration. NATO defense agencies and military experts have recognized the disruptive potential of this union, especially in terms of its military capabilities and the implications it could have in conflict situations. The rapprochement and intensified cooperation between China, Russia and Iran have caused alarm in Washington and some concern among NATO allies, recognizing the need to pay attention to how this bloc could disrupt the international status quo and challenge Western strategic interests.

Keywords: international relations, coalition, geopolitics, cooperation and international security.

Introduction

The possible formation of a geopolitical alliance/coalition between the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been viewed by analysts and policymakers as a joint effort to challenge the global preeminence of the West, especially the influence of the United States and its allies. This alliance/coalition, often referred to as the Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis, reflects the interest of these countries in collaborating in various areas, including economic, political and military cooperation.

In demographic and geographic terms, the three countries represent a combined area of approximately 29 million square kilometers and encompass a population of close to 1.5 billion, offering a wide range of resources and strategic capabilities. Demographics may fluctuate, but these figures give an idea of the significant size of the population involved.

From an economic standpoint, the collaboration between China, Russia and Iran suggests significant potential. Although the combined GDP of these countries may constitute about 22% of global GDP, this estimate is subject to variation due to dynamic economic factors, including exchange rates, economic growth and fluctuating commodity prices, especially energy and minerals, which are key resources for these economies.

Militarily, the axis is notable for including two nuclear powers, China and Russia, which are not only permanent members of the UN Security Council with veto power, but also possess advanced military arsenals. These countries have demonstrated significant capabilities in the naval, land and air areas, and have engaged in various initiatives to modernize and expand their respective armed forces.^[2]

The strengthening cooperation between Beijing, Moscow and Tehran has generated reactions in Washington and among NATO members. There is growing concern that this alliance could alter the global balance of power and specific key regions, such as the Middle East, Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

Think tanks associated with NATO and the Pentagon have expressed that the combined capabilities of the China-Russia-Iran bloc may present notable strategic challenges. These assessments are consistent with statements by senior NATO military commanders, who have acknowledged that the military capabilities of this axis can be significant, especially in contested scenarios.

The purpose of this article is to examine the possible consolidation of an axis composed of the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran and to determine the possible consequences, in economic, political and military terms.

Coalition or alliance

In the field of international relations, the terms coalition and alliance are frequently used, but they have different connotations.

An alliance generally refers to a formal agreement between states to cooperate in areas of mutual interest and is often associated with defense and security arrangements. Alliances can be bilateral or multilateral in nature and often involve explicit commitments to mutual assistance in the event of a conflict. These agreements are usually codified in treaties, such as NATO, which is based on mutual cooperation and collective defense.^[3]

A coalition, on the other hand, is often used to describe a less formal association that may be temporary and directed at specific objectives. Coalitions may or may not have formal agreements behind them and may be more flexible in terms of member participation and commitments. Coalitions are common in international interventions where the objectives are often specific and time-limited.^[4]

In the case of the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran, we can argue that they would be in the process of forming a coalition rather than an alliance, based on the following points:

Flexibility in Cooperation: As far as is publicly known, the three countries have not signed a formal mutual defense treaty that resembles other traditional alliance agreements. Instead, they appear to be working on a series of cooperative agreements covering various areas such as economics, politics and security.

Diversity of Interests: While an alliance often requires cohesive agreement and compatible strategies, a coalition can admit a greater degree of divergence among the national interests of its members.^[5] China, Russia and Iran have different strategic objectives and foreign policies that may not fully converge, but they join together to counter what they perceive as Western dominance.

Specific Objectives: These countries appear to be joining forces primarily to resist Western influence and promote a multipolar world order. This shared objective may be less unifying and permanent than the commitments commonly associated with traditional military alliances.

Selective and Opportunistic Cooperation: Cooperation between China, Russia and Iran could be described as opportunistic, as each country sees strategic benefits in collaborating in certain areas while maintaining its independence in others.

Veto power in the UNSC: Both Russia and China are permanent members of the UN Security Council with veto power. This allows them to coordinate efforts to influence international policy in a meaningful way, but is more related to coordination between great powers than a formal military alliance.

Formalization of the coalition

So far, there has not been an official, formalized tripartite coalition between the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran that has a concrete operational start date and signed documents establishing such a coalition as a single, structured entity. However, there have been a number of bilateral and multilateral interactions and agreements that indicate growing cooperation between these three countries in different fields:

China and Russia: they have signed a number of cooperation agreements and have conducted joint military exercises. In addition, they have coordinated positions in the UN Security Council and have strengthened their economic ties, including investment in energy infrastructure and increased bilateral trade.

Russia and Iran: They maintain a relationship based on military and technical cooperation. Russia has assisted Iran in the development of its civilian nuclear program and has been a supplier of armaments. Both countries have also cooperated militarily in the Syrian conflict in support of the government of Bashar al-Assad.^[6]

China and Iran: have developed significant economic and energy ties, and in 2021, signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement, which includes sectors such as trade and economics, as well as military and security cooperation.

Despite cooperation in different areas, these agreements to date have not constituted a formal coalition with a functioning structure or an officially declared start of operations. Moreover, it is important to distinguish between tangential strategic cooperation and the formation of a coalition with unified objectives and policies.

On the other hand, at the multilateral level, all three countries are part of various international forums, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS in the case of Russia and China, where they exchange views and can align certain policies. Iran has shown interest in joining these organizations more comprehensively, where Russia and China are key members.

Geopolitical implications

A coalition between China, Russia and Iran would have several geopolitical implications, given that each of these countries has considerable weight in the international arena and capabilities that could complement each other. Some of the possible implications are:

Reinforced Multipolarity: Strengthened cooperation between these nations can accelerate the shift to a multipolar world system. The joint actions of these countries can be seen as an effort to counter the influence of the United States and its allies, proposing alternatives to the current international order.

Balance of Power in Asia: Such a coalition would significantly shift the strategic balance in Asia, possibly challenging U.S. influence in the region and offering smaller countries a potential ally in opposition to the perceived hegemony of the West.

Economy and Trade: An economic bloc could emerge with preferential trade agreements, mutual investments and shared infrastructure projects. This could also include efforts to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar by developing alternative payment systems that bypass the Western-dominated financial system.

Security and Military Cooperation: The three countries could increase military cooperation, conduct joint exercises and share military technologies, which would have significant implications for regional and global stability. This could also lead to an arms race and the reformulation of security alliances.

Energy and Resources: With Russia and Iran as major energy producers and China as a major consumer, cooperation in this field can increase their influence in global energy markets, offering China energy security and Russia and Iran stable markets for their oil and gas.

Challenges for Western Diplomacy: An effective coalition could limit the effectiveness of U.S. and EU foreign policies, especially with regard to sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Such a coalition could provide economic and political support to counter punitive measures imposed by the West.

Influence on International Bodies: They could coordinate to influence the decisions and policies of multilateral bodies, including the UN, where two of the three have veto power, to promote their interests and challenge Western-led initiatives.

Regional Tensions and Conflict: Cooperation between these countries could exacerbate regional tensions, especially in contentious areas such as Taiwan, Ukraine, the South China Sea and the Middle East. Neighboring countries and global powers will have to navigate increasingly complex security dynamics.

Challenges to Nuclear Nonproliferation: Engagement with Iran could complicate international efforts to limit nuclear proliferation, particularly if Russia and China see less incentive to contain Iran’s nuclear program in the context of broader strategic cooperation with Tehran.

Emerging Technologies and Cyberspace: there could be cooperation on the development and use of emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, 5G and other aspects of cyberspace. This would also include possible coordinated cyber defense and cyber offensive strategies.

Alternative Narratives: These countries can work together to promote alternative governance narratives and values that challenge the Western view and promote the diversity of political and economic systems as equally legitimate.

International trade relations

The consolidation of a coalition between the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran could have significant effects on international trade relations. These effects could be both direct, such as changes in trade flows and investment policies, and indirect, through the impact on global geopolitical stability. Some possible consequences are detailed below:

Reconfiguration of Supply Chains: international companies could seek to diversify and possibly move away from supply chains dependent on countries within the coalition, especially if geopolitical tensions lead to the imposition of sanctions or tariffs. On the other hand, there could be an acceleration in the decoupling process between China and countries aligned with the United States, where companies would seek alternatives to reduce their exposure to risks derived from potential trade conflicts.

Foreign Investment: Coalition countries could strengthen their domestic economic ties and seek to attract investment from other regions that see in this coalition a counterweight to Western influence, modifying global patterns of foreign direct investment. There could also be an increase in joint infrastructure projects, such as those already underway under initiatives like China’s Belt and Road Initiative, but now including the involvement of Russia and Iran more prominently.^[7]

Trade Norms and Standards: With a stronger coalition, alternative trade norms and standards could emerge that compete with those driven by Western economies, especially in sectors such as digital technology and telecommunications. These countries could develop preferential agreements with each other that exclude Western nations or set higher trade barriers for non-coalition members.

Currencies and Financial Markets: The coalition could encourage the denomination of trade transactions in alternative currencies to the U.S. dollar, such as the Russian ruble, Chinese yuan or a new common currency, as a way to circumvent the Western-dominated financial system. This could also influence global financial markets, creating new regional financial centers or strengthening existing ones in Asia and the Middle East, offering investors alternatives to the New York, London or Frankfurt stock exchanges.

Energy Market: Cooperation between Russia and Iran, both major energy producers, together with growing demand from China, could lead to new dynamics in the oil and gas markets, possibly shifting the center of gravity of the energy market. Countries currently dependent on Russia or Iran for their energy needs could look to diversify their energy sources in the face of the risk of sanctions or supply disruptions linked to political tensions.

Impact on the Global Economy: A strong economic alliance between these three major players could challenge the economic hegemony of the West, which could lead to a new distribution of global economic power. The uncertainty generated by these realignments could cause volatility in global markets, affecting trade, investment and exchange rates.

International political relations

The establishment of a tripartite coalition between the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran has considerable political repercussions affecting the international landscape. Some of these potential impacts are detailed below:

Reconfiguration of the International Order: The consolidation of this alliance could presage a fundamental transformation of the international order. The emergence of a united front between China, Russia and Iran represents a potential counterweight to Western dominance and suggests a move towards a more multipolar world order. These changes could alter established power dynamics and allow for a global scenario where different centers of influence exert greater autonomy and relevance.

Challenge to U.S. Hegemony: The coalition represents an explicit challenge to U.S. hegemony. By increasing interconnectedness in foreign policy and defense, these countries are positioning themselves to counter the ability of the United States to impose its will unilaterally, particularly through measures such as sanctions. These efforts are reflected in the search for greater self-sufficiency and the construction of alternative systems of trade and finance that circumvent the dominance of the dollar.

Legitimizing Alternative Governance Models: In contrast to Western liberal democracies, China, Russia and Iran represent distinct political systems that are often labeled as authoritarian or centralized. The alliance can enhance the ability of these countries to promote and legitimize their respective governance models, both regionally and globally, which could have a ripple effect on the spread of similar political systems elsewhere.

Transformation of Regional and Global Alliances: The consequences of this bloc for the fabric of coalitions in different regions are profound. Additional alliances could emerge composed of states aligned with coalition interests, often motivated by dissatisfaction with Western foreign policy or the pursuit of new geopolitical opportunities. Similarly, the coalition may cause tensions and fissures in existing alliances, such as NATO or the European Union, where policies toward China, Russia and Iran have already generated debate.

Mutual Support in International Forums: Cooperation between member countries can be strengthened by mutual support in multilateral organizations such as the United Nations. This could enable them to promote common agendas and neutralize initiatives led by Western powers, particularly on key issues such as human rights and international law.

Potential to Influence Conflicts: In conflict zones, the coalition could exert significant influence, either by exacerbating existing tensions through support for specific actors or by seeking diplomatic solutions with new power configurations. The alignment of interests among these actors could result in a significant shift in sponsorship to non-state actors and regimes in countries such as Syria, Yemen or Ukraine.

Reconfiguration of Security Strategies: The growing combined military capabilities of these three countries, along with their possible alignment on security issues, could force Western powers to reconsider their own security strategies. This could also drive an intensification of arms races, particularly in the realm of emerging technologies and cyber defense.^[8]

Promotion of Alternative Economic Arrangements: From a political and economic point of view, the coalition can favor the development and consolidation of economic systems that challenge Western-dominated financial institutions. This includes the creation of alternative exchange and financing mechanisms that reduce dependence on existing structures.

Impact on Human Rights and International Regulations: The rapprochement between these states may lead to joint pressure on international regulations, potentially deviating from the focus on the promotion of human rights and fundamental freedoms that characterizes the West. At the same time, solidarity within the coalition may weaken international criticism of the domestic practices of its members.

Questioning Liberal Globalization: Finally, the existence of the coalition implies a critique of the current form of globalization and could tip the balance towards models that prioritize the regulatory and protective role of the state over markets and societies.

Relations in the field of defense and international security

In a constantly evolving geopolitical context, the emergence of a coalition between China, Russia and Iran would trigger a profound revision of current international security and defense architectures.^[9] The following will explain how the rise of this dynamic alliance could reshape the global defense landscape and reconfigure existing strategic alignments. To wit:

Transformation of the Military Balance of Power: The military and strategic integration of these three nations has the potential to significantly alter the global balance of power. The convergence of their armed forces, whether through joint exercises, collaborative weapons development or unified strategic planning, introduces a new vector of power that inevitably resets the calculus of security and defense policy by the West and its allies.

Cause of Arms Races and Technological Development: The enshrinement of a military coalition between China, Russia and Iran could easily generate a stimulus in arms races, with a prominent focus on emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyberspace, and the militarization of space. In the face of this reality, increased investment in defense R&D by the United States and NATO is expected, in order not to lag behind the innovations that this coalition could introduce.

Strategic Destabilization and Regional Shifts: The impact of this coalition extends beyond mere military capabilities, as it could redefine the geography of security and change the strategic balance in critical areas such as the Middle East, Central Asia and the Arctic. The possibility of China, Russia and Iran collectively exerting more pressure or influence over these areas could ignite new tensions and require international actors to reevaluate their regional policies and alliances.

Reconfiguring Alliances and Defense Treaties: The existence and strengthening of this coalition could test the integrity and effectiveness of existing alliances such as NATO, prompting them to reconsider their collective security strategies. In addition, cooperation among these states could complicate dialogue and negotiation of future arms treaties and confidence-building measures, challenging the arms control infrastructure as we know it.

Cybersecurity and Space Dominance in the Forefront: In an era where cyber warfare and competition in space are becoming increasingly prominent, the combined efforts of these three countries could pose an unprecedented threat to global cyber and space security. The need for a collective defense and security strategy in these areas emerges as critical to any state’s national defense against the possibility of coordinated cyber attacks or competition for space.

Influence on the Defense Industry and the Arms Market: As a counterbalance to the dominance of Western arms suppliers, this alliance could motivate the birth of an alternative defense market, where defense technology transfer and arms trade between coalition members and other countries would be promoted. This could not only change the international defense industry ecosystem, but also offer countries sanctioned by the West new sources of military equipment.

Interests and objectives

The possible formation of a coalition between the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran would reflect a strategic convergence of their interests and objectives, which encompass political, economic, military and technological aspects. The goals that each country would have within this coalition are detailed and contextualized below:

China: Assertion and Projection of Power.

China, in its rise to world power, has as one of its main objectives to consolidate and expand its influence in the world order. With flagship projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, China seeks not only to weave an infrastructure network connecting Asia with Africa and Europe, but also to export its development model, which combines state policy with private initiative.

The alliance with Russia and Iran allows China:

Counter US influence, especially in strategically vital regions such as the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia.

Secure access to crucial natural resources, diversifying its sources of energy and raw materials to sustain its economic growth.

Open new markets for its goods and technologies, particularly in countries less aligned with the West or affected by international sanctions.

Strengthen its military and technological projection capabilities, especially in the development and deployment of advanced weapons systems.Rusia: Reafirmación de la Grandeza Nacional

Russia is pursuing the reaffirmation of its status as a great power, an integral component of its national identity and foreign policy. Collaboration with China and Iran serves its strategic needs:

It marks an opposition to NATO expansion and U.S. military presence near its borders and traditional areas of interest.

It enhances its influence in regions such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe, which are fundamental to its security and sphere of influence.

It allows it to strengthen economic and technological ties, especially in critical sectors such as energy and the military, facilitating the development and sale of weapons and technology.

It provides a platform to circumvent the impact of sanctions imposed by Western powers, through the creation of alternative financial and commercial systems.

Iran: Strengthening Autonomy and Regional Expansion

Iran aims to counter political and economic pressure coming from the West, particularly sanctions affecting its economy and nuclear program. Iran seeks to:

Secure and project its influence in the Middle East, where it has geopolitical and religious interests.

Strengthen its defensive capabilities, taking into account the perceived threats from regional adversaries and the U.S. military presence in the area.

Seek international legitimacy and support for its nuclear program, positioning it as part of its sovereign right to self-defense and scientific development.

Diversify its alliances and economic partnerships to alleviate the effects of sanctions and promote its technological and military development.

Balance of power in Central Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

The possible consolidation of a coalition between China, Russia and Iran could have the potential to significantly alter the balance of power in several key regions around the world. Here we analyze how this coalition could impact Central Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe:

Central Asia

Central Asia is a region rich in natural resources and possesses a significant geostrategic position between Europe.^[10] Asia and the Middle East. Collaboration between China, Russia and Iran could:

Strengthen China’s economic presence in the region by deepening the Belt and Road Initiative, establishing a transportation and trade infrastructure that could lessen the region’s dependence on Russia.

Facilitate the creation of a collective security architecture that could diminish the influence of external actors, such as the United States and NATO, which have sought to establish partnerships with countries in the region.

Emphasize energy cooperation, with China and Russia investing in oil and gas facilities, while Iran could provide alternative routes for the export of these resources to the south.

Middle East

The Middle East, a region traditionally influenced by the dynamics between the United States and its allies versus Iran and its allies, could experience the following changes:

Iran could receive greater political and economic backing from China and Russia, which would enhance its regional influence and ability to resist the pressure of sanctions imposed by the West.

Russia has recently established a significant military presence in Syria and seeks to expand its influence in other countries such as Libya. The alliance with China and Iran can consolidate Russia’s position in the Eastern Mediterranean and throughout the region.

China, through its need to secure the flow of energy and its policy of non-intervention in other countries’ internal affairs, could become an alternative peacemaker to the United States, possibly mediating in regional conflicts with a different approach.

Eastern Europe

Eastern Europe is a region where alliance interests could significantly impact security and policy, especially in relation to NATO’s presence and actions:

Russia sees Eastern Europe as its traditional sphere of influence and has shown strong opposition to NATO’s eastward expansion. With the support of China and Iran, Russia could seek to strengthen its influence in the region and directly challenge the Western military presence.

Defense cooperation between these actors could lead to the deployment of more advanced weapons systems in the area, increasing tension and potentially destabilizing the existing balance of power.

Chinese involvement in infrastructure and investment projects could tempt some Eastern European countries to adopt a more equidistant stance between the West and the China-Russia-led bloc.

The think tanks associated with NATO and the Pentagon

Think tanks linked to NATO and the Pentagon have pointed out that the synergy of military and strategic capabilities of a bloc comprising China, Russia and Iran may pose a number of relevant challenges to global security. These assessments are in line with statements made by senior NATO military leaders, who have stressed that effective cooperation between these countries can result in a significant increase in their warfighting capabilities, with particular emphasis on geopolitical conflicts.

The combined capabilities of China, Russia and Iran cover not only the conventional military domain – such as land, air and sea – but also the spheres of cybersecurity, electronic warfare, and the development and deployment of advanced technologies, such as hypersonic missiles and air defense systems. Advancement and specialization in these fields by this trilateral bloc could challenge the ability of NATO and its members to maintain technical and tactical superiority.

Affiliated think tanks primarily highlight concerns regarding the adaptability and coordination of joint operations of this bloc. Hypothetically, building a shared military and logistical infrastructure, with joint exercises and standardization of procedures, could allow China, Russia and Iran to exhibit a highly effective collective force. This translates into the ability to project power in multiple regions at once, thus challenging the influence and readiness of Western allies.

In addition, the imaginative use of economic influence and diplomacy by these countries can be seen as a complement to their military activities. By implementing a combination of “soft power” and “hard power,” they could challenge the existing international order, offering alternatives to the system led by the United States and its allies. Trade routes such as China’s Belt and Road initiative, the use of alternatives to the dollar in financial transactions, and political alliances can lead to the creation of economic and political blocs that limit Western influence.

In assessing the posture of this emerging bloc, think tanks also consider factors such as dissimilar national ambitions and opportunities where interests intersect, especially in regions such as the Middle East, the Arctic and Central Asia. They also examine capabilities for asymmetric action, which may include unconventional strategies, such as hybrid warfare operations, and strategies to counter or circumvent an adversary’s technological superiority.^[11]

From a defensive planning and strategy perspective, the analyses provided by these groups reflect on the need to develop robust counterintelligence capabilities, more effective anti-missile systems and advanced cybersecurity strategies to preserve NATO’s strategic advantages. They also stress the importance of maintaining and strengthening existing political and military alliances, as well as exploring new avenues of international cooperation to balance the future increased influence of the China-Russia-Iran coalition.^[12]

Conclusions

The bloc in formation comprising China, Russia and Iran is more akin to a coalition than an alliance in the traditional sense. It is a strategic but flexible cooperation, with shared interests but also significant differences, and is not yet regulated by a collective defense treaty with reciprocal security commitments.

As of March 2024, although there are indications of closer collaboration between these nations, an institutionalized coalition has not been formally established with documents certifying such an alliance nor is there an operational start date. Future developments could depend on incidents and resolutions arising after the cut-off date for the reporting and writing of this article (April 2024).

A coalition formed by China, Russia and Iran would have the potential to significantly alter existing international relations and power structures. Such a power configuration could challenge the preeminence of the United States and its allies, lead to a redistribution of global and regional influence, and have a profound impact on world politics for decades to come. However, it is also important to keep in mind that internal differences and competing interests within this potential coalition could limit its scope and effectiveness.

The consolidation of this coalition may lead to a substantial rethinking of international trade relations, with long-term implications for businesses, governments and economies worldwide. The ability of international actors to adapt to these changes will depend on the agility and flexibility of their economic and diplomatic responses.

The political ramifications of this tripartite alliance are extensive and may induce substantial changes in international dynamics, moving towards an environment characterized by multipolarity and the re-emergence of regionalized spheres of influence. The consolidation of this coalition would require Western countries and other international actors to develop complex strategic responses and be prepared to navigate a constantly changing landscape.

The strategic collaboration between China, Russia and Iran reveals the emergence of an axis of power that calls on the international community to reexamine and possibly redefine its approaches to security and defense policy. The response to this new axis, from Western powers and other relevant actors, is anticipated to be decisive in shaping future international stability and power order. Thus, the era of an ascendant strategic competition appears to be imminent, requiring a profound reflection on the ways in which nations manage global security in an increasingly integrated and challenging environment.

Indeed, the alliance among these nations represents a deliberate strategy to reshape both the geopolitical landscape and the international system. They seek to challenge traditional Western hegemony and bring about a balance of power more favorable to their respective national interests, strengthening their positions on the global stage vis-à-vis established power dynamics.

Overall, this trilateral coalition could have a disruptive effect on the current international order. It would represent an alliance of countries pursuing a change in the status quo, offering new options for alliances and influence in a world that has so far been dominated by Western interests. A shift towards a multipolar system could become more evident, with unforeseen effects and the potential for a new configuration of global politics.

The possibility of this bloc consolidating its forces is of great interest not only to NATO and the Pentagon, but also to the global strategic balance, leading to continued analysis of its implications. As geopolitical dynamics unfold, it is paramount that Western institutions and their allied think tanks maintain constant vigilance and adapt their policies and strategies to meet these emerging challenges in an effective and forward-looking manner

Endnotes:

1. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2221-5956

   girubiopineiro@unla.edu.ar; pongui51@gmail.com

   Universidad Nacional de Lanús (UNLa), Argentina.

   Autor del libro: “Capacidades del Sistema de Inteligencia ruso”.

   Es Mayor en situación de retiro del Ejército Argentino. Asimismo, es Magister en Defensa Nacional y especialista en estrategia operacional y planeamiento militar conjunto, así como en conducción superior de organizaciones militares conjuntas. Es Licenciado tanto en Comunicación Institucional como en Administración. Ha realizado el Curso de Oficial de Estado Mayor y Planeamiento Conjunto en la Escuela Superior de Guerra Conjunta del Ejército Argentino. Actualmente, es profesor en Geopolítica y Análisis Estratégico, en Defensa Nacional y en Instituciones y Regímenes de la Defensa y la Seguridad Internacional, en la Universidad Nacional de Lanús (UNLa).

   El autor declara que no tienen conflicto de intereses.

   Fuente de financiamiento: ninguna. ↑

2. Naciones Unidas. Carta de las Naciones Unidas. 26 de junio de 1945. https://www.un.org/es/about-us/un-charter (último acceso: 06 de abril de 2024). ↑
3. Barkin, J. Samuel. International Organization: Theories and Institutions. New York: Macmillan, 2006. ↑
4. Ibíd. ↑
5. Keohane, Robert. Instituciones internacionales y poder estatal: ensayos sobre teoría de las relaciones internacionales. Buenos Aires: Grupo Editor Latinoamericano, 1993. ↑
6. Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos. Cuadernos de Estrategia 221 Irán en la encrucijada global. Estratégico, Madrid: Ministerio de Defensa, 2023. ↑
7. Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos. Cuadernos de Estrategia 212 China: el desafío de la nueva potencia global. Estratégico, Madrid: Ministerio de Defensa, 2022. ↑
8. European Union Law. Comunicación Conjunta al Parlamento Europeo, al Consejo, al Comité Económico y Social Europeo y al Comité de las Regiones. Estrategia de ciberseguridad de la Unión Europea: Un ciberespacio abierto, protegido y seguro. 07 de febrero de 2013. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/ES/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52013JC0001 (último acceso: 06 de abril de 2024). ↑
9. Agnew, John A. Geopolítica: Una re-visión de la política mundial. Madrid: Trama Editorial, 2005 ↑
10. Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos. Cuadernos de Estrategia 219 Asia Oriental, la interdependencia como causa de conflicto. Estratégico, Madrid: Ministerio de Defensa, 2023. ↑
11. Rubio Piñeiro, Gonzalo Javier. Capacidades del Sistema de Inteligencia ruso: Caso adhesión de Crimea a Rusia: entre medidas activas, hombrecitos verdes, fuerzas especiales, ciberactivistas y espías. Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires: Autores de Argentina, 2021. ↑
12. Ibíd. ↑